Trimming the Sails: The Comparative Political Economy of by Istvan Benczes

By Istvan Benczes

Financial consolidation has major brief time period charges which hose down financial progress. This extensively shared consensus in literature on political economic climate makes economic adjustment hugely unpopular. Benczes conducts a scientific research to determine if it is attainable to have economic consolidation and event fiscal progress even within the brief run.The publication offers a transparent, multidisciplinary and systematic research of the really new proposal of the so-called expansionary financial consolidations. this idea means that monetary adjustment could be in trade-off with financial progress if yes stipulations are met. yet why do just a couple of nations and purely at convinced occasions adventure the expansionary results, whereas others in no way? the mandatory stipulations and situations were completely ignored within the literature, or analyzed in simple terms in part at best.Having advanced a theoretical framework, it's validated on a tough case: Hungary, which has had the top deficit within the ecu Union. the most query used to be no matter if Hungary has an opportunity to event brief time period progress results in occasions of adjustment.

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Additional resources for Trimming the Sails: The Comparative Political Economy of Expansionary Fisal Consolidation, A Hungarian Perspective

Sample text

In a study on Ireland and Denmark, Giavazzi and Pagano (1990), claimed that it was the size of adjustment that delivered the change in the expectations of individuals. The authors argued that the larger the adjustment is, the more likely 8 Additionally, a successful and credible adjustment also reduces the value of interest payment, thereby implying a further improvement in fiscal balance. 3 The effect of fiscal policy on aggregate demand II: A new approach Source: own construction. non-Keynesian effects occur.

E. they have achieved a permanent reduction in their debt-to-GDP ratios), but were unable to experience the expansionary effects of fiscal consolidation. Presumably, for these countries the fundamental target was to hinder the further accumulation of debt, therefore the concentration was directed exclusively to the breaking off of the increasing trend of indebtedness. The parallel occurrence of debt-reduction and (relative) growthincrease may prove to be important from our point of view because presumably the pure effects of fiscal consolidation could be assessed by this way since the significant and effective debt-reduction could be a good proxy for the change in the course of fiscal policy.

Our result confirms what Alesina and Perotti (1995 and 1996) have also found in their seminal papers: the size of adjustment may not prove to be a good predictor concerning the success of any consolidation. The threshold for being qualified as a successful adjustment was defined by a 5 percentage point decline in the debt ratio over a three year period. It was also checked, however, whether the 5 percentage point decline occurred earlier than three years. The results are surprising: only four cases out of the 17 episodes required three years to become successful, the rest provided a significant fall in the debt-toGDP ratio within one or two years already.

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